Hot Stove Primer: Who’s Going Where And What Moves Will Be Made

After a surprising World Series victory by the Giants, there’s only a five-day turnaround before we see 142 players in free agency. Where are the big names heading? What trades might we see? Let’s start with the biggest fish in this small free agent pond…

SP Cliff Lee

Main suitors: Rangers, Yankees

Dark Horse candidate: Nationals

Following three stellar starts in the postseason with a dud and a Series-clinching loss, there are some newfound questions about what Lee can expect from free agency. This is a pitcher who will be 33 next season, just had back issues in August, and has pitched a lot of innings the past three years. Add in the fact that long-term pitcher deals tend not to work out very well (see Kevin Brown, Barry Zito, among others), and there really shouldn’t be a deal to any pitcher above 4 years.

However, the rules go out the window when the Yankees are in the bidding and have a target in their sights. While I wouldn’t make a long-term deal with a pitcher of this age, if it takes 6 years to get Lee in pinstripes, expect the deal to get done.

You can’t rule out the Rangers, however, who are fresh off a deep postseason run, have new owners and a big-money TV contract to make matching the Yankees’ offer a possibility. Also, the Nationals are talking about making a big splash in free agency, and there would be no bigger splash than stealing away Lee.

Predicted deal: Yankees, 5 years, $135 million

LF Carl Crawford

Main Suitors: Red Sox, Angels

Dark Horse Candidates: Yankees, Mets

Crawford is easily the best position player in this free agent market. The Rays can’t afford him anymore, and the Red Sox are looking to benefit from Tampa’s budget cuts. They have a huge need in the outfield, and even if Crawford’s stellar defense would help more in right, he would be a cornerstone in Fenway’s short left field.

The Angels, coming off a disappointing year, could really use a tablesetter for their lineup, and Crawford’s blend of speed and ability to get on base could be a key for a 2011 turnaround. Owner Arte Moreno has not been shy about spending money, and I don’t think they’ll be outbid.

I list the Yankees and Mets as dark horses for different reasons. For the Mets, I feel they absolutely need Crawford, even if he would have to play right field for them (Jason Bay has to play in left), and would be a huge boost to their lineup – he’s a great fit for Citi Field in my opinion. The Yankees are probably not as focused on upgrading their outfield as much as getting Lee, but if they fail at getting Lee, don’t be surprised if Granderson or Swisher are on the trading block and Crawford is playing left field at Yankee Stadium.

I don’t see the Yankees missing on Lee, however, and Crawford goes elsewhere.

Predicted deal: Angels, 5 years, $100 million

OF Jayson Werth

Main Suitors: Phillies, Angels, Red Sox

Dark Horse candidates: Nationals, Braves

Werth is going to get a big-money offer, and while he’s a solid major leaguer, he’s really going to benefit from the Jason Bay and Matt Holiday deals last year. He is definitely not the $100 million player that one of these teams is going to make him.

Between the Red Sox and the Angels, whoever misses out on Crawford will go after Werth hard. I don’t think the Phillies will be able to find the money in their budget to retain him, but their lineup is really lefty-heavy, so don’t be surprised if a couple pieces are moved (Ibanez? Blanton?) to free up the money for Werth.

I mention the Nationals and Braves, since like I mentioned before the Nationals are looking to make a splash in free agency, and the Braves could really use a replacement for Chipper Jones in their outfield.

This one, I honestly have no feel on where he will end up, so take this with a grain of salt.

Predicted deal: Red Sox, 5 years, $100 million

Other Hot Stove Notes:

 -Expect the three Yankee FA’s to re-up with the team, even if they go to free agency. I’m thinking a one-year deal again for Pettitte, a two-year deal for Mo Rivera, and either a 3 or 4-year deal for Jeter. Money might be an issue in the Jeter negotiations, but he wouldn’t get nearly the kind of money on the open market that the Yankees would give him.

- The biggest names in this market left are Rafael Soriano and Jorge De La Rosa. Considering that closers generally get overpaid in free agency, and there’s no starting pitcher on anywhere near the same level of Cliff Lee available, both guys could be budget-breakers for the teams that land them.

- As free agency proceeds, expect the trade market to produce a couple interesting moves. Zack Greinke, like I stated already (Zack Greinke On The Move? But Where Exactly?), should be on the move to the team that comes up with the biggest offer – Twins or Rangers being the lead candidates. Adrian Gonzalez could be on the move, although it wouldn’t surprise me if the Padres see if they can build on last season to make another run at a weak NL West. Prince Fielder also could be on the way out.

- Bud Selig should be focusing more on expanding instant replay in baseball, instead of making the long baseball season longer by adding more playoff games. I have no problem with the concept of two wild card teams who have to play a do-or-die game to make the Divisional round, but only if he also makes sure that we don’t have anymore November baseball.

NBA 2010-11 Season Preview: Division Winners, Surprise Teams and Award Winners

With the NBA season about to begin, here’s your primer on everything roundball, and what to expect in the coming season!
-Don’t expect the Miami Heat to run away with league’s all-time best regular season record: Remember, this is a team that was built to win championships, not to go 82-0. They already had to absorb a major thumb injury to Mike Miller, as well as a Dwyane Wade hamstring pull. Who knows what other injuries are going to keep them from their potential. Remember, the ’96 Bulls had an incredible run of health in the year they set the record for most regular season wins – only Dennis Rodman missed significant time that year.

-Do expect the climb to the top to be harder for the Heat than most are predicting: The Lakers are still the team to beat this year, and their biggest advantage (pun not intended) is exactly the Heat’s weakness – size, and good size to boot. Chris Bosh can’t cover Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum (when healthy), and Lamar Odom would also be an iffy matchup as well. Throw in Ron Artest potentially giving LeBron James fits, and you still have to give the advantage to the Lakers in that matchup.

This, of course, assumes that Miami can get through the Celtics and the Magic, both who will also have a size advantage against the Heat. Admittedly, I see the Magic being less of an issue than the Celtics, unless Dwight Howard finally learned something from Hakeem Olajuwon during the offseason and has a much-improved post game.

-Expect the Thunder to push the Lakers to Game 7 – this time in the Western Conference Finals: Kevin Durant is ready to take that next step, and with this young team’s evolution into a tough-minded defensive outfit, they are the toughest out for the defending champs.

-Don’t expect a surprise team to make it further than the second round: This is clearly a top-heavy league, with the top eight teams – Lakers, Celtics, Heat, Magic, Thunder, Mavericks, Spurs and Bulls – being significantly better than the rest of the league. Maybe the Trail Blazers or the Rockets can shake the injury bug enough to surprise one of the top teams out West in the first round – but they are clearly inferior to healthy Lakers and Thunder squads.

Along that same thought, the Bucks and Hawks out East are not ready yet to take down any of the top 3 teams – nor should they pose too much of a threat to the Bulls, either.

-Expect the Knicks to make the playoffs – with or without Carmelo: Even if the Knicks don’t find a way to trade for Carmelo Anthony, the inside-out game between Amare Stoudemire and Danilo Gallinari should be enough to push them into the 7th or 8th seed in the East, and with a stark improvement at PG with the Raymond Felton signing, you have the makings of a couple playoff games in the Garden this year.
Speaking of which…

-Expect Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul to get traded: Anthony is not going to re-sign with the Nuggets, and while I’m not sure if he ends up a Knick or a Net, he is definitely going to be traded. I’m actually surprised that the Nuggets didn’t make the move already, since you have to expect that the packages they could demand in a trade would have to be lessened as the season goes along, and they can’t pull what Toronto did with Chris Bosh and let him leave for basically nothing.

While Anthony trade talk has certainly quieted the early offseason noise from New Orleans, I can very well see the Hornets having another mediocre year, and if they’re clearly out of playoff contention, you can expect Paul to start demanding a trade again. If the Nets strike out on Anthony, they become a co-favorite along with Portland to acquire Paul.

-Don’t expect LeBron James to win the MVP Award again: This year’s MVP will go to Kevin Durant, especially as the Heat take the second half of the season to get healthy for the playoffs. A dark-horse candidate for the MVP – Dwight Howard, but he has to show marked improvement on the offensive end.

-Expect Blake Griffin to win the Rookie of the Year Award: Simply put, the man is a beast, and if he can stay healthy after sitting out all last year with a broken kneecap, he will put up double-doubles with ease. The Clippers have enough talent to make the playoffs, and it starts with Griffin, who will edge out John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins for ROY honors.

-Don’t expect the Cavaliers to win the draft lottery: Simply put, the team with the worst record has won the lottery exactly four times since the lottery was instituted in 1985. So, in combination with losing LeBron this year, there’s a good chance that the Cavs won’t be drafting a new King this year.

-Expect the best record to come from the East again – and don’t be surprised if it’s not the Heat: Orlando and Boston could easily put together as many wins as the Heat, if not more, and I don’t see the Heat playing nearly as hard for home-court advantage as their competitors. There’s also a good chance that the best record will be the only team to crack 60 wins, like last year.

-Expect a repeat winner for Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard will have this award in the bag every year he’s healthy. As for the other major award winners – Coach of the Year will be Tom Thibodeau, Executive of the Year will be Pat Riley, Most Improved Player will be Eric Gordon, and Sixth Man of the Year will be Jamal Crawford.-Don’t expect many new division winners: My picks for the division winners: Boston (Atlantic), Chicago (Central), Miami (Southeast), Oklahoma City (Northeast), LA Lakers (Pacific) and Dallas (Southwest).
-Don’t expect a rematch in the NBA Finals – but don’t be surprised either: Personally, I can’t stand the Lakers or the Heat, but I can’t predict anything else unless someone proves otherwise: Lakers-Heat, Lakers in 7.

-Expect a repeat of the 2000 lockout: This would be a horrendous move by both the owners and the players, especially with the NFL and MLB staring at contentious labor negotiations as well. However, I can’t expect the players to agree to anything the owners come up with that requires a steep drop in revenues that go to players – right now the owners want the players’ cut of revenues to decrease by $750-$800 million from the $2.1 billion they’ll take in this year.

I also don’t see the players’ union successfully breaking down the owners, many of whom probably would be better off financially during a lockout than if they had to run normal operations. If a deal gets done that keeps the 2011-12 season intact, I’d be stunned.

NL Playoff/World Series Predictions and Award Winners

Well, it took until the 162^nd game, but we have an NL Playoff field! With the NLDS series opening up on Wednesday and Thursday, let’s break down the matchups, and hand out some (pretend) hardware.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds – The surprise team in the playoffs vs. the surprise No. 1 team in baseball, the Phillies come into this series with easily the best starting pitching of any contender. Start off a series with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, who have all pitched at the top of their games in the second half, and you have the makings of a quick series.

The Reds, meanwhile, have faded down the stretch, although they certainly did enough to hold off a surprisingly mediocre St. Louis Cardinals team to take the NL Central. Joey Votto should absolutely win the MVP – more on that later – but the starting pitching for the Reds is middle-of-the-pack, and even playing all 5 games in hitter-friendly parks, it’s really easy to give the nod to the best three-headed monster in this postseason.

Prediction: Phillies in 3

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants – For once, unless you’re a Mets or Phillies fan, the Braves became the feel-good story of the year with their late run to the playoffs for soon-to-be-retired manager Bobby Cox. Sprinkle in a strong rookie year from Jason Heyward, and of course some exceptional starting pitching, and you have the receipe for a wild card team.

Too bad they’re running into the second-best pitching team in these playoffs, not to mention without a fully healthy lineup. With Chipper Jones and Martin Prado out of the lineup, expect the Giants’ young trio of lights-out starters – Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez – to keep the scoring down, and the Giants should prevail to move on for a shot at the NL Pennant.

Prediction: Giants in 4

NLCS: Phillies vs. Giants – With both teams sporting excellent pitching (the Giants had the majors’ best team ERA, while the Phillies had the 6^th), don’t expect a whole lot of runs scored in any of the games played between these two teams.

That being said, this is also a matchup of the 7^th best offense in baseball vs. the 17^th. Once you factor that in, the Phillies might have their most trouble in the postseason with the Giants, but expect them to pull away with just enough offense to carry them to a third straight World Series appearance.

Prediction: Phillies in 6

World Series: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies – As I stated in my AL Playoff preview, the Rays’ offense has a nasty tendency to disappear for whole games – no-hit or one-hit 5 times this year. I really don’t have much else to say about this one, since the Rays don’t have a starter to line up behind David Price who’s even in the same conversation as Cole Hamels, let alone Oswalt or Halladay.

In terms of offensive consistency, overall starting pitching, and the fact that the Phillies will have an easier path to the Series, expect a repeat from 2008 and a second title for the Phillies.

Prediction: Phillies in 6

My NL Award Winners

NL MVP: For most of the second half, the MVP talk centered around three potential Triple Crown winners – Joey Votto of the Reds, Albert Pujols of the Cardinals, and Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies.

Since their stats are all in the same ballpark (no pun intended), let’s break down each candidate and play process of elimination.

Albert Pujols’ team faded down the stretch and lost their division going away to Votto’s Reds. If he clearly had the best numbers of all the players, he could stay in the conversation, but his team losing out to his direct competitors knocks him out.

Carlos Gonzalez, even though his team couldn’t complete their seemingly normal late-season run to the postseason this year, put up some monster numbers… at home in Coors Field. A 1.162 OPS would win you an MVP most years, but a .775 OPS to match on the road, especially with your home field being a mile high, and another one bites the dust.

That leaves Votto, who led his team to the playoffs, finished 2^nd in batting average, 3^rd in HR’s and RBI’s, and 1^st in OBP, slugging and OPS – oh and he was a slightly better hitter on the road, and you have your MVP.

Prediction: Joey Votto is your MVP, but don’t be surprised if Roy Halladay gets a few first-place votes too.

NL Cy Young: Note to CC Sabathia: Nowadays, if you want to win a Cy Young, here’s the numbers you have to put up, along with 21 wins: 219 K’s, 2.44 ERA, 9 CG, 1.04 WHIP and a 10-1 K/BB ratio.

I’m of course talking about Roy Halladay, who is going to win this one going away. Adam Wainwright wasn’t nearly as dominant overall and Ubaldo Jimenez couldn’t keep up his first-half pace as he faded in the second half.

No-brainer here.

Prediction: Roy Halladay, in what should be a unanimous selection.

NL Rookie of the Year: From the first at-bat of his season onward, this award was Jason Heyward’s to lose. And he certainly didn’t, playing 142 games, batting .277 with an OBP of .393 – outstanding for a 20-year-old – and playing solid defense in right field.

There’s definitely room in the argument for Buster Posey here, who hit for a higher average (.305), hit as many home runs as Heyward in fewer at-bats (both hit 18), and played a more demanding position, catching the best staff in terms of ERA day-in and day-out. Don’t forget about Jaime Garcia either, who slowed down in the second half but still ended up with a 2.70 ERA to go along with a 13-8 record and a .243 BAA.

At the end of the day, though, the extra days in the lineup and the higher OBP are going to carry Heyward to his first – and most likely not his last – end of the year award.

Prediction: Jason Heyward, in what figures to be a pretty close vote.

I’ll be back with postseason series wraps throughout the playoffs. Stay tuned!

~ David