Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA. Show all posts
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Friday, November 5, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
NBA 2010-11 Season Preview: Division Winners, Surprise Teams and Award Winners
With the NBA season about to begin, here’s your primer on everything roundball, and what to expect in the coming season!
-Don’t expect the Miami Heat to run away with league’s all-time best regular season record: Remember, this is a team that was built to win championships, not to go 82-0. They already had to absorb a major thumb injury to Mike Miller, as well as a Dwyane Wade hamstring pull. Who knows what other injuries are going to keep them from their potential. Remember, the ’96 Bulls had an incredible run of health in the year they set the record for most regular season wins – only Dennis Rodman missed significant time that year.
-Do expect the climb to the top to be harder for the Heat than most are predicting: The Lakers are still the team to beat this year, and their biggest advantage (pun not intended) is exactly the Heat’s weakness – size, and good size to boot. Chris Bosh can’t cover Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum (when healthy), and Lamar Odom would also be an iffy matchup as well. Throw in Ron Artest potentially giving LeBron James fits, and you still have to give the advantage to the Lakers in that matchup.
This, of course, assumes that Miami can get through the Celtics and the Magic, both who will also have a size advantage against the Heat. Admittedly, I see the Magic being less of an issue than the Celtics, unless Dwight Howard finally learned something from Hakeem Olajuwon during the offseason and has a much-improved post game.
-Expect the Thunder to push the Lakers to Game 7 – this time in the Western Conference Finals: Kevin Durant is ready to take that next step, and with this young team’s evolution into a tough-minded defensive outfit, they are the toughest out for the defending champs.
-Don’t expect a surprise team to make it further than the second round: This is clearly a top-heavy league, with the top eight teams – Lakers, Celtics, Heat, Magic, Thunder, Mavericks, Spurs and Bulls – being significantly better than the rest of the league. Maybe the Trail Blazers or the Rockets can shake the injury bug enough to surprise one of the top teams out West in the first round – but they are clearly inferior to healthy Lakers and Thunder squads.
Along that same thought, the Bucks and Hawks out East are not ready yet to take down any of the top 3 teams – nor should they pose too much of a threat to the Bulls, either.
-Expect the Knicks to make the playoffs – with or without Carmelo: Even if the Knicks don’t find a way to trade for Carmelo Anthony, the inside-out game between Amare Stoudemire and Danilo Gallinari should be enough to push them into the 7th or 8th seed in the East, and with a stark improvement at PG with the Raymond Felton signing, you have the makings of a couple playoff games in the Garden this year.
Speaking of which…
-Expect Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul to get traded: Anthony is not going to re-sign with the Nuggets, and while I’m not sure if he ends up a Knick or a Net, he is definitely going to be traded. I’m actually surprised that the Nuggets didn’t make the move already, since you have to expect that the packages they could demand in a trade would have to be lessened as the season goes along, and they can’t pull what Toronto did with Chris Bosh and let him leave for basically nothing.
While Anthony trade talk has certainly quieted the early offseason noise from New Orleans, I can very well see the Hornets having another mediocre year, and if they’re clearly out of playoff contention, you can expect Paul to start demanding a trade again. If the Nets strike out on Anthony, they become a co-favorite along with Portland to acquire Paul.
-Don’t expect LeBron James to win the MVP Award again: This year’s MVP will go to Kevin Durant, especially as the Heat take the second half of the season to get healthy for the playoffs. A dark-horse candidate for the MVP – Dwight Howard, but he has to show marked improvement on the offensive end.
-Expect Blake Griffin to win the Rookie of the Year Award: Simply put, the man is a beast, and if he can stay healthy after sitting out all last year with a broken kneecap, he will put up double-doubles with ease. The Clippers have enough talent to make the playoffs, and it starts with Griffin, who will edge out John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins for ROY honors.
-Don’t expect the Cavaliers to win the draft lottery: Simply put, the team with the worst record has won the lottery exactly four times since the lottery was instituted in 1985. So, in combination with losing LeBron this year, there’s a good chance that the Cavs won’t be drafting a new King this year.
-Expect the best record to come from the East again – and don’t be surprised if it’s not the Heat: Orlando and Boston could easily put together as many wins as the Heat, if not more, and I don’t see the Heat playing nearly as hard for home-court advantage as their competitors. There’s also a good chance that the best record will be the only team to crack 60 wins, like last year.
-Expect a repeat winner for Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard will have this award in the bag every year he’s healthy. As for the other major award winners – Coach of the Year will be Tom Thibodeau, Executive of the Year will be Pat Riley, Most Improved Player will be Eric Gordon, and Sixth Man of the Year will be Jamal Crawford.-Don’t expect many new division winners: My picks for the division winners: Boston (Atlantic), Chicago (Central), Miami (Southeast), Oklahoma City (Northeast), LA Lakers (Pacific) and Dallas (Southwest).
-Don’t expect a rematch in the NBA Finals – but don’t be surprised either: Personally, I can’t stand the Lakers or the Heat, but I can’t predict anything else unless someone proves otherwise: Lakers-Heat, Lakers in 7.
-Expect a repeat of the 2000 lockout: This would be a horrendous move by both the owners and the players, especially with the NFL and MLB staring at contentious labor negotiations as well. However, I can’t expect the players to agree to anything the owners come up with that requires a steep drop in revenues that go to players – right now the owners want the players’ cut of revenues to decrease by $750-$800 million from the $2.1 billion they’ll take in this year.
I also don’t see the players’ union successfully breaking down the owners, many of whom probably would be better off financially during a lockout than if they had to run normal operations. If a deal gets done that keeps the 2011-12 season intact, I’d be stunned.
-Don’t expect the Miami Heat to run away with league’s all-time best regular season record: Remember, this is a team that was built to win championships, not to go 82-0. They already had to absorb a major thumb injury to Mike Miller, as well as a Dwyane Wade hamstring pull. Who knows what other injuries are going to keep them from their potential. Remember, the ’96 Bulls had an incredible run of health in the year they set the record for most regular season wins – only Dennis Rodman missed significant time that year.
-Do expect the climb to the top to be harder for the Heat than most are predicting: The Lakers are still the team to beat this year, and their biggest advantage (pun not intended) is exactly the Heat’s weakness – size, and good size to boot. Chris Bosh can’t cover Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum (when healthy), and Lamar Odom would also be an iffy matchup as well. Throw in Ron Artest potentially giving LeBron James fits, and you still have to give the advantage to the Lakers in that matchup.
This, of course, assumes that Miami can get through the Celtics and the Magic, both who will also have a size advantage against the Heat. Admittedly, I see the Magic being less of an issue than the Celtics, unless Dwight Howard finally learned something from Hakeem Olajuwon during the offseason and has a much-improved post game.
-Expect the Thunder to push the Lakers to Game 7 – this time in the Western Conference Finals: Kevin Durant is ready to take that next step, and with this young team’s evolution into a tough-minded defensive outfit, they are the toughest out for the defending champs.
-Don’t expect a surprise team to make it further than the second round: This is clearly a top-heavy league, with the top eight teams – Lakers, Celtics, Heat, Magic, Thunder, Mavericks, Spurs and Bulls – being significantly better than the rest of the league. Maybe the Trail Blazers or the Rockets can shake the injury bug enough to surprise one of the top teams out West in the first round – but they are clearly inferior to healthy Lakers and Thunder squads.
Along that same thought, the Bucks and Hawks out East are not ready yet to take down any of the top 3 teams – nor should they pose too much of a threat to the Bulls, either.
-Expect the Knicks to make the playoffs – with or without Carmelo: Even if the Knicks don’t find a way to trade for Carmelo Anthony, the inside-out game between Amare Stoudemire and Danilo Gallinari should be enough to push them into the 7th or 8th seed in the East, and with a stark improvement at PG with the Raymond Felton signing, you have the makings of a couple playoff games in the Garden this year.
Speaking of which…
-Expect Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul to get traded: Anthony is not going to re-sign with the Nuggets, and while I’m not sure if he ends up a Knick or a Net, he is definitely going to be traded. I’m actually surprised that the Nuggets didn’t make the move already, since you have to expect that the packages they could demand in a trade would have to be lessened as the season goes along, and they can’t pull what Toronto did with Chris Bosh and let him leave for basically nothing.
While Anthony trade talk has certainly quieted the early offseason noise from New Orleans, I can very well see the Hornets having another mediocre year, and if they’re clearly out of playoff contention, you can expect Paul to start demanding a trade again. If the Nets strike out on Anthony, they become a co-favorite along with Portland to acquire Paul.
-Don’t expect LeBron James to win the MVP Award again: This year’s MVP will go to Kevin Durant, especially as the Heat take the second half of the season to get healthy for the playoffs. A dark-horse candidate for the MVP – Dwight Howard, but he has to show marked improvement on the offensive end.
-Expect Blake Griffin to win the Rookie of the Year Award: Simply put, the man is a beast, and if he can stay healthy after sitting out all last year with a broken kneecap, he will put up double-doubles with ease. The Clippers have enough talent to make the playoffs, and it starts with Griffin, who will edge out John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins for ROY honors.
-Don’t expect the Cavaliers to win the draft lottery: Simply put, the team with the worst record has won the lottery exactly four times since the lottery was instituted in 1985. So, in combination with losing LeBron this year, there’s a good chance that the Cavs won’t be drafting a new King this year.
-Expect the best record to come from the East again – and don’t be surprised if it’s not the Heat: Orlando and Boston could easily put together as many wins as the Heat, if not more, and I don’t see the Heat playing nearly as hard for home-court advantage as their competitors. There’s also a good chance that the best record will be the only team to crack 60 wins, like last year.
-Expect a repeat winner for Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard will have this award in the bag every year he’s healthy. As for the other major award winners – Coach of the Year will be Tom Thibodeau, Executive of the Year will be Pat Riley, Most Improved Player will be Eric Gordon, and Sixth Man of the Year will be Jamal Crawford.-Don’t expect many new division winners: My picks for the division winners: Boston (Atlantic), Chicago (Central), Miami (Southeast), Oklahoma City (Northeast), LA Lakers (Pacific) and Dallas (Southwest).
-Don’t expect a rematch in the NBA Finals – but don’t be surprised either: Personally, I can’t stand the Lakers or the Heat, but I can’t predict anything else unless someone proves otherwise: Lakers-Heat, Lakers in 7.
-Expect a repeat of the 2000 lockout: This would be a horrendous move by both the owners and the players, especially with the NFL and MLB staring at contentious labor negotiations as well. However, I can’t expect the players to agree to anything the owners come up with that requires a steep drop in revenues that go to players – right now the owners want the players’ cut of revenues to decrease by $750-$800 million from the $2.1 billion they’ll take in this year.
I also don’t see the players’ union successfully breaking down the owners, many of whom probably would be better off financially during a lockout than if they had to run normal operations. If a deal gets done that keeps the 2011-12 season intact, I’d be stunned.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Is Carmelo Anthony Worth the Hype?
Is he worth all the hype and attention?
In a special to ESPN, Tom Haberstroh (http://insider.espn.go.com/
But, in this instance, you have to say that he’s still easily a top-15 player* in today’s NBA, and if a coach could get him to post up more and shoot less 3’s, he’s a great value and asset to a team.
*For the record, I would go, in no particular order: Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant (excuse me, have to vomit), Dwight Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Carmelo Anthony, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, Tim Duncan and Russell Westbrook. But that’s a debate for another time.
So while he’s a top-tier NBA player, you could easily make the argument for him being at least out of the top 5, if not top 10 of the best in the game today. Here’s a guy who will score a ton for you, but he doesn’t shoot much better than league average (right around 46%), takes a lot of 3’s but hits a low percentage of them (career 31% from the arc), and doesn’t do anything else particularly well. His rebounding numbers are weak (6 per game is average for a small forward) and he has as many turnovers as assists per game (3 of each). Click here for total stats.
So what’s the big deal? He’s still a matchup nightmare on the offensive end, and while he’s an average defender at best, he has the skillset to be solid if someone flips the switch a la Paul Pierce.
Plus, you can’t forget the biggest point: How often does a top-15 NBA player become available or change teams? You know, besides this offseason?
He might not be elite, but Carmelo Anthony is definitely worth the time and energy for almost all the teams in the league today.
~ David
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Huge Net Return? Melo to Nets Trade Talk
Rumor du jour for the weekend is that Carmelo Anthony has approved a trade to the New Jersey Nets as part of a 4 team blockbuster. Let’s take a look at the proposed deal, and see who the big winners would be:
(Note: I’m assuming that the Nets only make the deal if Melo agrees to a contract extension)
Nets send: PF Derrick Favors, a 1-7 protected 1st rounder in 2012, and other draft picks to the Denver Nuggets, PG Devin Harris and SF Jarvis Hayes to the Charlotte Bobcats, and SF Quinton Ross to the Utah Jazz
Denver sends: SF Carmelo Anthony to the Nets
Charlotte sends: SF Boris Diaw to the Jazz, PG DJ Augustin to the Nets
Utah sends: SF Andrei Kirilenko to the Nuggets
Just off first impressions, you have to give a ton of credit to the Nuggets if this deal happens. Multiple draft picks, a young and talented PF with a high ceiling in Favors AND Kirilenko, a good-to-great SF who’s a matchup nightmare at times and a defensive ace… That’s quite a haul for a guy who probably doesn’t re-sign with Denver this offseason.
It’s pretty obvious that Masai Ujiri, the Nuggets’ new GM who was part of the Toronto Raptors’ front office last year, didn’t want to get burned a la Chris Bosh and be stuck with a whole lot of nothing next summer when the Knicks, Nets and who knows who else come knocking for Anthony’s services. And to get this much with limited leverage… it’s a nice start to his GM career in Denver. And while this most likely knocks them out of playoff contention this year, who knows what happens if they can’t make a deal and Anthony walks in the offseason.
For the Nets, it’s as simple as this: You obtain the assets to get good, cheap talent and to turn that good, cheap talent into great talent. And it’s not everyday that a top-10 talent is available. Plus, don’t sleep on Augustin, who would be a great depth pickup and could certainly push Jordan Farmar for the starting spot.
The risk is obvious: If Favors turns into a beast like he’s expected to and Anthony can’t get you to the Finals, the move’s a bust. And with the East being so top-heavy right now, you’d have to slot the Nets in behind Boston, Miami, and Orlando, and put them in the second tier with Chicago, Milwaukee and Atlanta.
The second risk is this: Is Carmelo Anthony worth it? I’ll analyze this later on this weekend, as it deserves an entry to itself.
For the Bobcats, they pick up a serious upgrade at the PG spot, as I firmly believe that Harris has a bounceback year this year, regardless of where he plays. Hayes has to be merely trade filler to make it work under the league’s salary cap rules.
Finally for the Jazz… I’m really not sure what they’re doing in the mix here, unless they’re picking up one of the draft picks involved. Kirilenko comes off the books this year, as does Diaw, and there has to be a better trade option for him down the line than dropping $8 million off the books for this year and getting two players who don’t add up to him. This would be strictly a salary dump to avoid the luxury tax for this season.
(The Jazz might get bumped out of this trade anyway: Denver supposedly favors keeping Diaw for themselves, probably due to the lower salary. Obviously my opinion of the deal for Denver sours slightly if this is the case.)
The biggest losers in this scenario has to be the Chicago Bulls and the New York Knicks (sorry John!). The Bulls need to quit smoking whatever it is that they’re smoking to think that you can’t give up Joakim Noah to get Anthony. And while the Knicks probably didn’t have the assets to get this move done anyway, it’s gotta sting doubly to know that and then see him shipped to your second-class citizen neighbors, who might soon be your first-class citizen neighbors again.
Like everyone else, we’ll wait and see, but there’s probably too much smoke for this fire to be a false alarm. Stay tuned for my analysis of Carmelo Anthony as a superstar player, and more future trade news.
~ David
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