So who’s going to represent the AL in the World Series this year? Let’s break it down!
*Note – I’m going under the assumption that the Yankees are more interested in facing the Twins in the first round than winning the division. Since it’s nearly impossible that the Rangers could catch the Twins in terms of record, I’m setting the playoff matchups as: Yankees-Twins and Rangers-Rays.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins – There are going to be two storylines for this matchup: Can the Twins finally overcome the Yankees, who won the season series this year 4-2 and absolutely owned them the past several years (16-50 since 2002 when Ron Gardenhire was named manager)? And who’s going to win a game for the Yanks besides CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte?
The upside for the Twins is that they have been a monster in the second half this year, going 46-21 since the All-Star break, and both their series against the Yankees came in May, when they were not playing nearly as well as they are now. They have a top-flight ace in Francisco Liriano (14-9, 3.48 ERA, 195 K’s, 1.26 WHIP), and their lineup has really stepped up since Justin Morneau went down with a concussion that he can’t shake the side effects.
The downside is… This is still the same Yankee team that rang them up 3-0 last postseason, except Kerry Wood is a better bridge to Mariano Rivera (Wood’s ERA since becoming a Yankee – 0.39, not to mention more than a strikeout per inning pitched and BAA of .167). Robinson Cano has blossomed into a possible MVP winner and the lineup is still one of the best in baseball.
The big question mark for the Yankees is starting pitching. Behind Sabathia, Andy Pettitte has basically used the month of September as a second spring training, Javier Vazquez is now a reliever and AJ Burnett might be too bad to be a reliever. Phil Hughes, while having a solid season, is still a postseason unknown and unlikely to get a start in the ALDS.
I gotta give the edge to the Yankees here. Sabathia should outduel Liriano, and the Yankees should score enough runs to move on to the next round. Let’s say Yankees in four.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Having seen a lot of the Rays this year, they are quite a misleading team. Dangerous offensively… but they got no-hit or one-hit on five occasions this year. Excellent starting pitching… which has struggled of late besides Cy Young hopeful David Price. Best 8th and 9th inning tandem all year… but if the starting pitching doesn’t get through 7, the rest of the bullpen can be had.
That said, I don’t think the Rangers have the starting pitching to make the Rays pay for their lack of offense. Add in the fact that the Rays just swept the Rangers in August… in a series where they beat Cliff Lee, and before Josh Hamilton went on the DL with broken ribs.
Even if he plays, a month off for a .361 hitter like Hamilton is still a month off. Add in the fact that Neftali Feliz, while dominating at times, has struggled at times, and I say the Rays win in four.
ALCS: Yankees vs. Rays – The season series went 10-8 in favor of Tampa. AJ Burnett will have to start a game in this series. Then again, so does Matt Garza, who has not been the same pitcher since his no-hitter. The Rays’ lineup has done well this year against the Yankees’ starters… but the postseason is another beast entirely.
This is a really tough call to make here. I’ve gotta say though, that David Price beating CC Sabathia heads up in back-to-back September starts is going to be a taste of things to come. Rays in seven.
AL Award Winners!
AL MVP – Alongside Detroit’s record falling off a cliff is Miguel Cabrera’s MVP chances. He’ll still pull some 1st place votes, thanks to his sick Triple Crown categories (.328 BA, 38 HR, 126 RBI’s). But with two candidates from first place teams having excellent years as well, I don’t see the voters giving it to a team that may finish around .500 and in third place.
Robinson Cano is the next leading candidate, and he’s getting a ton of love for being the Yankees’ offensive force early on in the season. The big question is: Did he peak too early? Everyone points to his batting average dropping from his April high of .400 to .276 in July, but let’s keep in mind: His other numbers stay very similar month-to-month, he’s played a Gold-Glove caliber second base and will have only missed one game all year if he plays out the last weekend in Boston.
Josh Hamilton is the last candidate, and the American League batting champion (.361) also has 31 HR and 97 RBI’s, which got his team out to the largest lead entering September in any division in the majors. Then, he broke his ribs crashing into a wall, and has barely been seen since. He should be back in time for the playoffs – nor should anyone expect him to miss the playoffs for any reason – but was a September off enough to swing the vote away from him?
Your AL MVP – Robinson Cano, slightly edging Josh Hamilton. Games played and the defense will swing the vote.
AL Cy Young – If I have to hear Michael Kay bitch to anyone else about how you can’t give the Cy Young to a pitcher with only 13 wins, I will smack him with a book of binary code… or Felix Hernandez’ run support in his starts. (FYI, binary code is a series of 0’s and 1’s)
Throw out 13-12 for just a second. He leads the AL in innings pitched (249.2 and counting), ERA (2.27), strikeouts (232), and complete games (6). He’s only had four – FOUR! – starts where he gave up more than three runs. He’s had 12 starts where the Mariners scored 2 runs or fewer in that start. He went 5-1 against the AL East, and has more wins against winning teams than CC Sabathia. He’s only had 2 starts in which he didn’t go 6 innings.
Look, to be fair, CC Sabathia has had a great year. So has David Price and Jon Lester, who should all get some votes.
Just not first-place votes.
Your AL Cy Young Winner – Felix Hernandez. However, I am thoroughly prepared to be wrong, since I have a feeling most voters will be blinded by Sabathia’s 21 wins.
AL Rookie of the Year – This is basically a two-horse race between Austin Jackson of the Tigers and Neftali Feliz of the Rangers. I’ve gone through Jackson’s numbers for the year here - A Grand Move, or a Grand Mistake?. Feliz however did just set the rookie record for most saves in a season with 38, and has a 2.81 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and strikes out more than a batter an inning.
Basically, if Feliz’ ERA was still above 3 like it was through August, I would give it to Jackson. But, given the historical nature of the season, and the fact that he closed out games for a division winner, and the answer’s simple.
Your AL Rookie of the Year – Neftali Feliz, making it two straight years for closers winning the award (Andrew Bailey, the closer for the A’s won last year’s).
Once the playoff picture is a little clearer I’ll be back with my NL Postseason picks and award winners. Sound off in the comment section below and stay tuned!
~ David
