Zack Greinke on the Move? But Where Exactly? More Notes From Around Baseball

Newest rumors out of the mill is that Cy Young winner Zack Greinke has told the Kansas City Royals that he wants to be traded to a team that has a better chance of winning while he’s in his prime. At the same time, he’s also made it clear that he doesn’t want to be traded to a big-market team. Given his issues with social anxiety from earlier in his career, it’s no surprise, but it does severely limit the chances of him going to a winner.

Without the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, White Sox, Dodgers or Angels to drive up the haul that the Royals could get in return, who’s left to make the Royals move their ace?

Given that he wants to win now, you can knock off Seattle, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Florida, Houston, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Washington and Arizona from that list. I’d also eliminate Oakland, San Diego, Toronto, San Francisco, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and St. Louis for a variety of reasons (low or tight budget, young pitching depth already, a stud pitcher or two in their rotation already).

Handicapping the teams left who should be in the race for Greinke:

1.       Minnesota Twins – They have the most to gain by making the deal. It would set up the rest of the rotation much better, dropping Francisco Liriano to No. 2 and allowing the promising Brian Duensing to stay as the No. 3 pitcher. Putting a Cy Young-quality strikeout ace at the front of the rotation would make them a much bigger threat in the postseason. The big question here is if they have enough to make the deal after trading for Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes at the trade deadline this year. The Capps deal especially might hurt in the long-term, given that they had to give up Wilson Ramos, a highly promising catching prospect, in the deal.

2.       Colorado Rockies – How much better would the Rockies have been with Greinke behind Ubaldo Jiminez, especially in their relatively mediocre first half? The Rockies are known as an organization that drafts well, so they should have the prospect depth to make the deal. The question then becomes whether they want to develop their prospects from within or make the move for Greinke.

3.       Cincinnati Reds – They have a ton of pitching depth, but they could absolutely use another top-line starter to help seal up their rotation. With an already potent lineup and a ton of young pitching, they could easily make this move, so like the Rockies, it depends on whether they would move their young prospects or develop from within.

4.       Texas Rangers – The bounceback move if they lose Cliff Lee in free agency to the Yankees – like everyone expects to happen, it seems – would be to trade for the best young pitcher available. Just like the Reds, they have the depth in their organization, but unlike the Reds or Rockies, they would face a huge loss in losing Lee this offseason which could immediately be remedied by picking up Greinke.

The big problem in this scenario is that Greinke’s desire to avoid a big market – while a smart idea, given that his makeup seems better for a small market – could very well keep a trade from happening. You have to believe that the Royals would have to be overwhelmed in order to trade a 26-year-old Cy Young winner who is under club control through 2012. I would expect the team to end up with Greinke to give up a Teixeira-to-the-Braves-type of package.

But given the teams I’ve eliminated from contention for various reasons, I could also easily see the remaining teams not coming up with enough to close the deal. This is going to be a story for most of the offseason, but I definitely see the Twins getting it done.

Notes from Around the League

- With all the attention being paid to Greinke all of a sudden, if you’re one of the big-market teams that needs another starter, wouldn’t you make your Greinke-level offer to the Mariners for Felix Hernandez? He’s a better pitcher right now, he’s younger, and he’s not openly available, so maybe you can give the Mariners a huge offer and get the deal done quickly. Two top pitching prospects (or an already-in-the-majors starter plus a prospect) and two position players (catcher and infielder) should get Seattle’s attention.

- Remember, the Phillies traded Cliff Lee because they felt they couldn’t afford him… then resigned Joe Blanton for what Lee was making this year. Add to that the fact that Philly didn’t even get top prospects back for him, and this could be a move that haunts the Phillies for years, especially if they never become the dynasty they had the chance to become.

- One pitch in two games in the ALCS is all the difference right now. Josh Hamilton’s HR off of Andy Pettitte in Game 3 and Bengie Molina’s bomb off AJ Burnett completely changed the complexion of both games, and even though both games had blowout-type finals, neither game really fit the bill of a blowout.

MLB Playoff Notes: Braves End Cox’s Career by Blowing Winnable Series, Phillies Still Favorites in NL; Rays-Rangers Series Plays into Yanks’ Hands

- Bobby Cox gets to end what should be a Hall of Fame managing career by watching his team do what it seemingly did best during his tenure: Lose in the playoffs.

Yeah, that’s a little bit harsh, especially considering how they rebuilt the team and stayed somewhat competitive after Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz all left or stopped starting games for them. But, with the talent they had through the 90’s and through 2005, to only come away with one World Series and two other appearances has to be disappointing.

Add to that the fact that they’re still synonymous with the Buffalo Bills in terms of success in the regular season but not in the playoffs, and Cox should really treasure that ’95 Series win.

- Give a lot of credit to the Giants for excellent starting pitching, as their starters gave up a total of 22 baserunners and 4 runs in 29 IP, and got quality starts out of all four pitchers. But also fault the Braves’ defense, with Brooks Conrad handing them Game 3 with three errors and Alex Gonzalez’ throwing error in Game 4 prolonging the 7^th inning in which the Giants took the lead for good.

- Given the performances by both rotations, expect runs to be at a premium in the NLCS. While the Phillies have the better offense of the two teams, it might be the first to score one, let alone 2 runs in each game. I still like the Phillies – like I said, their offense is better, and their starting pitching is obviously excellent – but this could be 7 games of 1-0 or 2-1 games.

- Obviously, I like the Yankees’ chances to make it to the World Series now that Cliff Lee and David Price have to pitch tomorrow, which means both will probably be available to start in Game 3 at the earliest. Even playing on the road, starting off the series against CJ Wilson/Colby Lewis or Matt Garza/Wade Davis going against a rested CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte is a big bonus in the Yankees’ favor.

- So far, it looks like Curtis Granderson is having the kind of postseason that would make me eat my words on whether it was a good idea to trade for him (A Grand Move, or a Grand Mistake?). 5-11, with a double, triple and 3 RBIs is a good start. Next round will be against tougher lefties, so we’ll really see if Kevin Long has his swing fixed.

- Jason Heyward lucked out in the sense that the voting for Rookie of the Year is only for regular season performance. Because Buster Posey would’ve definitely taken the award based on their NLDS performances. Posey was 6-16 with 3 runs when runs were at a premium, while Heyward went 2-16 with 8 K’s, and both hits were empty singles in Game 4.

- Game 5 Prediction for Rays-Rangers: When in a Game 5/7 scenario, smart money is to take the best pitcher. Rangers squeak by after blowing both home games on the back of Cliff Lee, who will take the bats right back out of the Rays’ lineup after their two-game wakeup.

MLB Playoff Notes: Rangers, Giants Blow Huge Opportunities; Yankees Sweep Away Twins, Expect the Same for Phillies

-From the late Friday game in San Francisco to the early game Saturday, the story of the playoffs looks like it will be who takes advantage of the opportunities in front of them.

The four series are in sharp contrast of each other. In the ALDS, the Twins led in the two games in Minneapolis, but couldn’t put the Yankees away for good, and the Yankees took advantage in their three-game sweep.

At this point, it’s almost sad how the Twins can’t get over the hump against the Bronx Bombers. The biggest issue is that, while their pitching sets up well in the regular season, they don’t have a real shutdown pitcher who can win you two games in a short series. Johan Santana was the closest they had, but they got the extra revenue to spend a few years too late to hang on to him.

-Next up for the Yanks in the ALCS is the winner of the Rangers-Rays series, which is now starting to swing in the Rays’ favor if their bats can stay awake for the next two games. After Ian Kinsler’s solo homer in the bottom of the 7^th gave the Rangers a 2-1 lead, the Rays responded with 5 in the 8^th and 9^th to win 6-3 and force a Game 4.

If the Rangers don’t make it to the World Series – either from losing this series or going to 5 games with a team they had on the ropes – Game 3 will be the game that changed the AL side of the playoffs. Now they have to start Tommy Hunter, who had a great record at 13-4 but a bad second half, going 5-4 with a 5.07 ERA after an 8-0 start, against Wade Davis, who has had a great second half (7-1 with a 3.22 ERA in his last 13 starts).

Either way the series goes, it greatly improves the Yanks’ chances to make the World Series again if this series goes 5. Both teams would have to use their best starters, and neither David Price nor Cliff Lee would be ready to start until Game 3.

-The Reds, meanwhile, caught a huge break in Game 2 when Roy Oswalt was not sharp at all, but much like the Twins, could not finish off the Phillies, blowing a 4-0 lead in losing 7-4. Now they have to go home with their best pitcher, Johnny Cueto, face Cole Hamels, who has excellent career numbers pitching in Cincinnati (3-1, 1.67 ERA in four starts) and also pitched 7-2/3 innings of shutout ball in July against the Reds.

-Give the Braves a lot of credit for making it a series against the Giants by coming back from three down to win Friday in extra innings, 5-4. Now they get their ace, Tim Hudson, going in Game 3 with a chance to win the series at home.

The Giants, meanwhile, might look at this game much like the Rangers will look at Game 3: a blown opportunity for a young team to advance in the playoffs that will hurt their chances to get to the World Series.

-I’ve read some criticism over the decisions to bring in Brian Wilson and Neftali Feliz in the 8^th innings of their teams’ losses. And while you’d obviously want better results than what Wilson and Feliz gave, I don’t see what’s the problem with bringing in your closer for more than 1 inning. Your closer is supposed to be your best reliever, and if you need more than 3 outs from your closer, then you go for it.

-Quick baseball question: Is it really a comeback win if you’re down but tie or take the lead before the 5^th inning, should we really consider it a comeback? And maybe that could even be changed to before the 7^th?

I just find it silly if you give up a run in the 1^st, then take the lead in the 3^rd, that it’s considered a comeback. We should save that for at least the 5^th or later, in my opinion.

MLB Playoff Notes: Aces Deliver, or A Letter to Michael Kay on Why You Avoid Cliff Lee in a Short Series

- For most of his baseball coverage on ESPN Radio, Michael Kay has been stating that he thinks it was a mistake for the Yankees to play to avoid Cliff Lee in the opening round of the 2010 MLB Playoffs. He said it was a mistake to underestimate the Minnesota Twins, and to give up home-field advantage.

Well, after the first four and a half games of the playoffs, I think we can all say that smart money is to avoid the best pitcher in the short series. And if you don’t believe me, ask the Rays or the Reds how their first playoff game this year went.

Look, I’m not sure I understand it either. But the Twins just seem to have a terrible time with the Yankees. No matter what they do, the Bronx Bombers are their kryptonite. Even when they catch a break – and they caught two last night, with CC Sabathia having a shaky outing and the potential game-ending catch by Greg Golson that was ruled a trap, bringing the tying run to the plate with 2 outs – they can’t finish them off.

This probably has something to do with the fact that Francisco Liriano is not fully ready to be a Lee/Halladay/Sabathia-type ace, and Carl Pavano is still Carl Pavano. In order to succeed in the postseason, you need shutdown pitching, or at least three weeks’ worth of shutdown pitching.

Which is exactly what Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay provided for their teams, and Liriano did not. Lee’s dominant performance gave the Rangers all the momentum, and the Yankees also carry a ton of momentum after their now-typical comeback victories against the Twins.

And that, Mr. Kay, is why you want no part of a dominant pitcher in a 5-game series.

- The Rays are toast. And while a comeback from an 0-2 deficit is not impossible, when you don’t have a functional offense against good-to-great starting pitching, you’re toast.

The Rays have 8 hits in the two games, and only one run. As long as the Rangers continue to pitch to contact and don’t walk themselves into trouble, I don’t see the Rays turning it around on their trip to Arlington, and a quick series win would do wonders for the confidence of the overall young Rangers.

- Lee probably thought he had quite the opening performance to the playoffs. 7 innings of one-run ball against one of the best offenses in the regular season.

Then Roy Halladay tossed a no-hitter, allowed one walk, and had one ball hit hard all night.
That, my friends, is the definition of stealing the show.

There’s nothing else I can say that hasn’t been said about Halladay, but what a way to start your first postseason appearance.

- That noise you heard was a collective sigh of relief from the Bronx. Andy Pettitte had a masterful start in Game 2, and really takes a ton of pressure off the rest of the Yankee staff. He had a rough 2nd inning, but only gave up one run, and made one mistake, a solo homer to Orlando Cabrera, in 7 innings, only allowing the Twins the two runs and five hits.

And who would’ve thought that Lance Berkman would be the key guy offensively, DH-ing out of the 8-hole? A homer to give the Bombers a lead, then a long double to break a 2-all tie, and you have the offensive player of the game.

- Not that anyone should’ve thought any differently, but expect another pitching duel for Game 1 between the Giants and the Braves. Tim Lincecum is obviously the known quantity, but don’t rule out Derek Lowe, who has the postseason pedigree and has been pitching magnificently of late (5-0, 1.17 ERA in September).

- Not to dump on them any more than the national media will, but why would Joe Maddon and Ron Gardenhire decide it was a good idea to get thrown out of a playoff game? Each had a call at the plate go against them, then were followed with big hits (Michael Young’s three-run bomb after he did swing at what should have been strike three; Berkman’s go-ahead double after a close call on a ball). The question is: Aren’t you done if you have to try and rally your team to try and prevent from losing the first two games of a playoff series at home?

Note to the Rays fans who were chanting “Replay!” after Young’s homer… Maybe your team will need to score before you worry about what really amounts to insurance runs?

Okay, I’ll be nice… The call was terrible, and Young should’ve been out on strikes. However, I really can’t see MLB using replay to rule on check-swings. Maybe something like what the NFL is trying to accomplish with microchips in the football that would indicate if the ball crossed the goal line?

- I know there are plenty of teams that could assuredly use him, but wouldn’t Cliff Lee be a tremendous fit in Cincinnati? The Reds could really use that true No. 1 guy to take the pressure off their young rotation, and they (normally) are a good-hitting team. And if Lee can pitch in Texas and Philly, I don’t think the Great American Ballpark is going to be any trouble.

- While on the topic of free agents, Brett Gardner might be making the thought of the Yankees going after Carl Crawford this offseason obsolete. And yes, I’m biased, as Gardner might be my favorite guy on the team.

Sometimes it’s hard to root for them, and it would get a little harder if the home-grown leftfielder with a ton of speed, a great glove and a high OBP who sees a lot of pitches gets replaced by… a high-priced free agent leftfielder with a ton of speed, a great glove and a high OBP who sees a lot of pitches.

Is it so much to ask that a team saves money when it doesn’t need to spend it?

NL Playoff/World Series Predictions and Award Winners

Well, it took until the 162^nd game, but we have an NL Playoff field! With the NLDS series opening up on Wednesday and Thursday, let’s break down the matchups, and hand out some (pretend) hardware.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds – The surprise team in the playoffs vs. the surprise No. 1 team in baseball, the Phillies come into this series with easily the best starting pitching of any contender. Start off a series with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, who have all pitched at the top of their games in the second half, and you have the makings of a quick series.

The Reds, meanwhile, have faded down the stretch, although they certainly did enough to hold off a surprisingly mediocre St. Louis Cardinals team to take the NL Central. Joey Votto should absolutely win the MVP – more on that later – but the starting pitching for the Reds is middle-of-the-pack, and even playing all 5 games in hitter-friendly parks, it’s really easy to give the nod to the best three-headed monster in this postseason.

Prediction: Phillies in 3

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants – For once, unless you’re a Mets or Phillies fan, the Braves became the feel-good story of the year with their late run to the playoffs for soon-to-be-retired manager Bobby Cox. Sprinkle in a strong rookie year from Jason Heyward, and of course some exceptional starting pitching, and you have the receipe for a wild card team.

Too bad they’re running into the second-best pitching team in these playoffs, not to mention without a fully healthy lineup. With Chipper Jones and Martin Prado out of the lineup, expect the Giants’ young trio of lights-out starters – Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez – to keep the scoring down, and the Giants should prevail to move on for a shot at the NL Pennant.

Prediction: Giants in 4

NLCS: Phillies vs. Giants – With both teams sporting excellent pitching (the Giants had the majors’ best team ERA, while the Phillies had the 6^th), don’t expect a whole lot of runs scored in any of the games played between these two teams.

That being said, this is also a matchup of the 7^th best offense in baseball vs. the 17^th. Once you factor that in, the Phillies might have their most trouble in the postseason with the Giants, but expect them to pull away with just enough offense to carry them to a third straight World Series appearance.

Prediction: Phillies in 6

World Series: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies – As I stated in my AL Playoff preview, the Rays’ offense has a nasty tendency to disappear for whole games – no-hit or one-hit 5 times this year. I really don’t have much else to say about this one, since the Rays don’t have a starter to line up behind David Price who’s even in the same conversation as Cole Hamels, let alone Oswalt or Halladay.

In terms of offensive consistency, overall starting pitching, and the fact that the Phillies will have an easier path to the Series, expect a repeat from 2008 and a second title for the Phillies.

Prediction: Phillies in 6

My NL Award Winners

NL MVP: For most of the second half, the MVP talk centered around three potential Triple Crown winners – Joey Votto of the Reds, Albert Pujols of the Cardinals, and Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies.

Since their stats are all in the same ballpark (no pun intended), let’s break down each candidate and play process of elimination.

Albert Pujols’ team faded down the stretch and lost their division going away to Votto’s Reds. If he clearly had the best numbers of all the players, he could stay in the conversation, but his team losing out to his direct competitors knocks him out.

Carlos Gonzalez, even though his team couldn’t complete their seemingly normal late-season run to the postseason this year, put up some monster numbers… at home in Coors Field. A 1.162 OPS would win you an MVP most years, but a .775 OPS to match on the road, especially with your home field being a mile high, and another one bites the dust.

That leaves Votto, who led his team to the playoffs, finished 2^nd in batting average, 3^rd in HR’s and RBI’s, and 1^st in OBP, slugging and OPS – oh and he was a slightly better hitter on the road, and you have your MVP.

Prediction: Joey Votto is your MVP, but don’t be surprised if Roy Halladay gets a few first-place votes too.

NL Cy Young: Note to CC Sabathia: Nowadays, if you want to win a Cy Young, here’s the numbers you have to put up, along with 21 wins: 219 K’s, 2.44 ERA, 9 CG, 1.04 WHIP and a 10-1 K/BB ratio.

I’m of course talking about Roy Halladay, who is going to win this one going away. Adam Wainwright wasn’t nearly as dominant overall and Ubaldo Jimenez couldn’t keep up his first-half pace as he faded in the second half.

No-brainer here.

Prediction: Roy Halladay, in what should be a unanimous selection.

NL Rookie of the Year: From the first at-bat of his season onward, this award was Jason Heyward’s to lose. And he certainly didn’t, playing 142 games, batting .277 with an OBP of .393 – outstanding for a 20-year-old – and playing solid defense in right field.

There’s definitely room in the argument for Buster Posey here, who hit for a higher average (.305), hit as many home runs as Heyward in fewer at-bats (both hit 18), and played a more demanding position, catching the best staff in terms of ERA day-in and day-out. Don’t forget about Jaime Garcia either, who slowed down in the second half but still ended up with a 2.70 ERA to go along with a 13-8 record and a .243 BAA.

At the end of the day, though, the extra days in the lineup and the higher OBP are going to carry Heyward to his first – and most likely not his last – end of the year award.

Prediction: Jason Heyward, in what figures to be a pretty close vote.

I’ll be back with postseason series wraps throughout the playoffs. Stay tuned!

~ David

AL Playoff Preview and Awards Predictions

With the Yankees’ victory over the Blue Jays yesterday, the field is pretty much set in the AL for the playoffs. All four teams are locked in and are now getting their rotations set for their upcoming series starting next week.

So who’s going to represent the AL in the World Series this year? Let’s break it down!

*Note – I’m going under the assumption that the Yankees are more interested in facing the Twins in the first round than winning the division. Since it’s nearly impossible that the Rangers could catch the Twins in terms of record, I’m setting the playoff matchups as: Yankees-Twins and Rangers-Rays.

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins – There are going to be two storylines for this matchup: Can the Twins finally overcome the Yankees, who won the season series this year 4-2 and absolutely owned them the past several years (16-50 since 2002 when Ron Gardenhire was named manager)? And who’s going to win a game for the Yanks besides CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte?

The upside for the Twins is that they have been a monster in the second half this year, going 46-21 since the All-Star break, and both their series against the Yankees came in May, when they were not playing nearly as well as they are now. They have a top-flight ace in Francisco Liriano (14-9, 3.48 ERA, 195 K’s, 1.26 WHIP), and their lineup has really stepped up since Justin Morneau went down with a concussion that he can’t shake the side effects.

The downside is… This is still the same Yankee team that rang them up 3-0 last postseason, except Kerry Wood is a better bridge to Mariano Rivera (Wood’s ERA since becoming a Yankee – 0.39, not to mention more than a strikeout per inning pitched and BAA of .167). Robinson Cano has blossomed into a possible MVP winner and the lineup is still one of the best in baseball.

The big question mark for the Yankees is starting pitching. Behind Sabathia, Andy Pettitte has basically used the month of September as a second spring training, Javier Vazquez is now a reliever and AJ Burnett might be too bad to be a reliever. Phil Hughes, while having a solid season, is still a postseason unknown and unlikely to get a start in the ALDS.

I gotta give the edge to the Yankees here. Sabathia should outduel Liriano, and the Yankees should score enough runs to move on to the next round. Let’s say Yankees in four.

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Having seen a lot of the Rays this year, they are quite a misleading team. Dangerous offensively… but they got no-hit or one-hit on five occasions this year. Excellent starting pitching… which has struggled of late besides Cy Young hopeful David Price. Best 8^th and 9^th inning tandem all year… but if the starting pitching doesn’t get through 7, the rest of the bullpen can be had.

That said, I don’t think the Rangers have the starting pitching to make the Rays pay for their lack of offense. Add in the fact that the Rays just swept the Rangers in August… in a series where they beat Cliff Lee, and before Josh Hamilton went on the DL with broken ribs.

Even if he plays, a month off for a .361 hitter like Hamilton is still a month off. Add in the fact that Neftali Feliz, while dominating at times, has struggled at times, and I say the Rays win in four.

ALCS: Yankees vs. Rays – The season series went 10-8 in favor of Tampa. AJ Burnett will have to start a game in this series. Then again, so does Matt Garza, who has not been the same pitcher since his no-hitter. The Rays’ lineup has done well this year against the Yankees’ starters… but the postseason is another beast entirely.

This is a really tough call to make here. I’ve gotta say though, that David Price beating CC Sabathia heads up in back-to-back September starts is going to be a taste of things to come. Rays in seven.

AL Award Winners!

AL MVP – Alongside Detroit’s record falling off a cliff is Miguel Cabrera’s MVP chances. He’ll still pull some 1^st place votes, thanks to his sick Triple Crown categories (.328 BA, 38 HR, 126 RBI’s). But with two candidates from first place teams having excellent years as well, I don’t see the voters giving it to a team that may finish around .500 and in third place.

Robinson Cano is the next leading candidate, and he’s getting a ton of love for being the Yankees’ offensive force early on in the season. The big question is: Did he peak too early? Everyone points to his batting average dropping from his April high of .400 to .276 in July, but let’s keep in mind: His other numbers stay very similar month-to-month, he’s played a Gold-Glove caliber second base and will have only missed one game all year if he plays out the last weekend in Boston.

Josh Hamilton is the last candidate, and the American League batting champion (.361) also has 31 HR and 97 RBI’s, which got his team out to the largest lead entering September in any division in the majors. Then, he broke his ribs crashing into a wall, and has barely been seen since. He should be back in time for the playoffs – nor should anyone expect him to miss the playoffs for any reason – but was a September off enough to swing the vote away from him?

Your AL MVP – Robinson Cano, slightly edging Josh Hamilton. Games played and the defense will swing the vote.

AL Cy Young – If I have to hear Michael Kay bitch to anyone else about how you can’t give the Cy Young to a pitcher with only 13 wins, I will smack him with a book of binary code… or Felix Hernandez’ run support in his starts. (FYI, binary code is a series of 0’s and 1’s)

Throw out 13-12 for just a second. He leads the AL in innings pitched (249.2 and counting), ERA (2.27), strikeouts (232), and complete games (6). He’s only had four – FOUR! – starts where he gave up more than three runs. He’s had 12 starts where the Mariners scored 2 runs or fewer in that start. He went 5-1 against the AL East, and has more wins against winning teams than CC Sabathia. He’s only had 2 starts in which he didn’t go 6 innings.

Look, to be fair, CC Sabathia has had a great year. So has David Price and Jon Lester, who should all get some votes.

Just not first-place votes.

Your AL Cy Young Winner – Felix Hernandez. However, I am thoroughly prepared to be wrong, since I have a feeling most voters will be blinded by Sabathia’s 21 wins.

AL Rookie of the Year – This is basically a two-horse race between Austin Jackson of the Tigers and Neftali Feliz of the Rangers. I’ve gone through Jackson’s numbers for the year here - A Grand Move, or a Grand Mistake?. Feliz however did just set the rookie record for most saves in a season with 38, and has a 2.81 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and strikes out more than a batter an inning.

Basically, if Feliz’ ERA was still above 3 like it was through August, I would give it to Jackson. But, given the historical nature of the season, and the fact that he closed out games for a division winner, and the answer’s simple.

Your AL Rookie of the Year – Neftali Feliz, making it two straight years for closers winning the award (Andrew Bailey, the closer for the A’s won last year’s).

Once the playoff picture is a little clearer I’ll be back with my NL Postseason picks and award winners. Sound off in the comment section below and stay tuned!

~ David

A Grand Move, or a Grand Mistake?

I sit around a bunch of baseball fans at my job, and during work or breaks we'll talk
baseball. The other day, the Mets fan of the group mentioned how Curtis Granderson was
starting to come through for the Yankees (this was the night after he hit two homers
against the Rays). The three Yankee fans (including myself) were pretty ambivalent
about this declaration, and the ensuing debate led to this question I had:

Now that the season is winding down, was the Curtis Granderson trade a good move for the
Yankees?

Now, based on the eyeball test for the season, my gut instinct was to say no. However, I
wanted to make sure that my eyes weren't lying to me. So, I dug into it, and I came to this
conclusion:

The only way it was worth it is if the Yankees win the World Series and Granderson has a
Brosius-in-'99 postseason.

When looking at the trade, there are several factors to consider:
1. Is Granderson an upgrade over Austin Jackson?
2. Is Granderson an upgrade over Johnny Damon?
3. Was the overall value in the package given up for Granderson matched by his production?
4. What did the Granderson move prevent the Yankees from doing/force them to do?

Let's start with the first question: Is Granderson an upgrade over Austin Jackson?

Granderson
SPLITS G    AB  R    H  2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Season 127 436 71 108 17   6   21   60 49 105 12   2    .248 .325 .459 .784

Jackson
SPLITS G    AB   R     H    2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Season 142 578 99   172   32 10    4   37   45 160 25    5   298 .352 .408 .760

This point makes the biggest case for making the Granderson trade. His power numbers are
significantly better, as are his RBI totals and his strikeout totals aren't nearly as bad.
Also to continue the point, it can be fairly stated that Jackson probably duplicates most
of what the Yankees got this year from Brett Gardner:

Gardner
SPLITS G    AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Season 143 451 90 125 19 6     5   46 75    95 42    8 .277   .384 .379 .763

It's also safe to say that, given his better OBP and lower strikeout numbers compared to
Jackson's, that Gardner was a better fit in the Yankee lineup this year. And given the
dearth of power across baseball this year, where Jose Bautista might be the only 50 HR
hitter, you could give added value to the rarer commodity that Granderson provided over
Jackson, namely home run power.

For this point, I would say that Granderson, for this lineup, was an upgrade over Austin
Jackson as an everyday player.

2. Is Granderson an upgrade over Johnny Damon?

Granderson
SPLITS G    AB  R    H  2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Season 127 436 71 108 17   6   21   60 49 105 12   2    .248 .325 .459 .784

Damon
SPLITS G    AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Season 135 505 79 135 33   5    8   48  67  86   10 1    .267 .355 .400 .755

This point, believe it or not, is a little murkier, and really ties into the last two
questions. Damon was actually a significantly better hitter at home (higher average, only
1 HR on the road), which was not much different from last year, when he was a catalyst for
a World Series champion. He gets on base more, walks more, strikes out less, and was a
known commodity, even if he's only a DH at this point.

That leads me to the point that probably clinches it for replacing Damon with Granderson:
You don't have to cringe when writing Granderson into your outfield lineup on a given
night. Plus, leading back to the same point from above, HR hitters have extra value this
year over most hitters, and Granderson has actually pretty even home and road HR numbers
(12 at home, 9 on the road).

So let's call it for Granderson on this point too.

Here's where it gets trickier, and requires a little more speculation:

3. Was the overall value of the package given up for Granderson matched by his production?

This has to be a resounding no. Even giving extra value to his HR total, you're still
talking about an above-average centerfielder who hit for a low average, didn't walk a lot
to compensate for his low average, struck out a lot and didn't steal many bases.

Remember, in return for Granderson, the Yankees had to give up not only Austin Jackson,
but also Phil Coke, a serviceable young bullpen arm, and Ian Kennedy, who was one of
three untouchables for Arizona at the trade deadline.

Kennedy
SPLITS G GS CG SHO IP      H   R ER HR BB SO W L P/GS WHIP BAA ERA
Season 30 30 0       0   185.0 155 83 78 25   66 161 9 9   99.8   1.19 .228    3.79

Now, you could also say that Kennedy has nowhere near those numbers if the Yankees hold
onto him. But, you could also say that he would have had a good amount of time to pitch in
the minors and make spot starts, which would have served the purpose of enhancing his
trade value.

Let's bring the last question into play:

4. What did the Granderson move prevent the Yankees from doing/force them into doing?

Two names for what the Yankees were forced to do: Nick Johnson (remember him?) and Javier
Vazquez.

Vazquez
SPLITS G GS CG SHO IP      H   R  ER HR BB SO W L P/GS WHIP  BAA    ERA
Season 29 25  0      0   149.2 144 87 84  29  61  118 10 9 96.2   1.37    .252    5.05

Vazquez had his off-year, in his on-year/off-year career, in a contract year, when he was supposed to solidify the Yankee rotation behind Sabathia, Pettitte and Burnett. Now, I'll admit I didn't hate the Vazquez move after the Granderson trade, because the Yankees had taken themselves out of the running for Halladay, and apparently only Seattle was aware that Cliff Lee was available.

That brings me to my second point: The Yankees had to make the Vazquez and Johnson moves, since they no longer had an outfield spot for Damon and he didn't want to DH full-time at the time, and they didn't have the prospects to get a better pitcher like a Halladay or Lee.

This stings in two different ways, or should I say the same way two different times. The Yankees were never in the running for Lee during the winter, and probably get him if they have a package with Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero during June, when the Rangers swiped him away.

(I won't include Halladay in this argument necessarily, even if the Blue Jays probably do better with Kennedy, Jackson and Montero than the package they got from the Phillies. They didn't seem to be interested enough.)

Also, with Nick Swisher having a career year in right, what does this mean for the Yankee outfield going forward? Gardner is a very unique presence in that lineup in terms of his OBP plus his speed, as well as being a good defensive outfielder. Swisher's not going anywhere, between his switch-hitting ability, HR power and overall effect on the clubhouse. And now you have Granderson who almost has to play next year due to his salary and the Yankees now having a budget that they feel the need to stick to.

Does Granderson prevent them from making the big offer to Carl Crawford that they probably should make (even if my opinion is that he's not going to be a Yankee)? Does it take them out of the trade market if an upgrade becomes available?

All in all, it just doesn't seem to add up. You'd have to think that the Yankees offense would've continued to chug along with a .300+ hitter with speed instead of a .250 hitter with power. Combine that with the fact that Damon would've given future flexibility since he could've been had for 1 year later on in free agency, and you probably don't see Nick Johnson as a Yankee, the power upgrade was not worth it.

Give me trade and payroll flexibility over Curtis Granderson.

Unless he tears up this postseason. Then I take it all back.

~ David