Hot Stove Primer: Who’s Going Where And What Moves Will Be Made

After a surprising World Series victory by the Giants, there’s only a five-day turnaround before we see 142 players in free agency. Where are the big names heading? What trades might we see? Let’s start with the biggest fish in this small free agent pond…

SP Cliff Lee

Main suitors: Rangers, Yankees

Dark Horse candidate: Nationals

Following three stellar starts in the postseason with a dud and a Series-clinching loss, there are some newfound questions about what Lee can expect from free agency. This is a pitcher who will be 33 next season, just had back issues in August, and has pitched a lot of innings the past three years. Add in the fact that long-term pitcher deals tend not to work out very well (see Kevin Brown, Barry Zito, among others), and there really shouldn’t be a deal to any pitcher above 4 years.

However, the rules go out the window when the Yankees are in the bidding and have a target in their sights. While I wouldn’t make a long-term deal with a pitcher of this age, if it takes 6 years to get Lee in pinstripes, expect the deal to get done.

You can’t rule out the Rangers, however, who are fresh off a deep postseason run, have new owners and a big-money TV contract to make matching the Yankees’ offer a possibility. Also, the Nationals are talking about making a big splash in free agency, and there would be no bigger splash than stealing away Lee.

Predicted deal: Yankees, 5 years, $135 million

LF Carl Crawford

Main Suitors: Red Sox, Angels

Dark Horse Candidates: Yankees, Mets

Crawford is easily the best position player in this free agent market. The Rays can’t afford him anymore, and the Red Sox are looking to benefit from Tampa’s budget cuts. They have a huge need in the outfield, and even if Crawford’s stellar defense would help more in right, he would be a cornerstone in Fenway’s short left field.

The Angels, coming off a disappointing year, could really use a tablesetter for their lineup, and Crawford’s blend of speed and ability to get on base could be a key for a 2011 turnaround. Owner Arte Moreno has not been shy about spending money, and I don’t think they’ll be outbid.

I list the Yankees and Mets as dark horses for different reasons. For the Mets, I feel they absolutely need Crawford, even if he would have to play right field for them (Jason Bay has to play in left), and would be a huge boost to their lineup – he’s a great fit for Citi Field in my opinion. The Yankees are probably not as focused on upgrading their outfield as much as getting Lee, but if they fail at getting Lee, don’t be surprised if Granderson or Swisher are on the trading block and Crawford is playing left field at Yankee Stadium.

I don’t see the Yankees missing on Lee, however, and Crawford goes elsewhere.

Predicted deal: Angels, 5 years, $100 million

OF Jayson Werth

Main Suitors: Phillies, Angels, Red Sox

Dark Horse candidates: Nationals, Braves

Werth is going to get a big-money offer, and while he’s a solid major leaguer, he’s really going to benefit from the Jason Bay and Matt Holiday deals last year. He is definitely not the $100 million player that one of these teams is going to make him.

Between the Red Sox and the Angels, whoever misses out on Crawford will go after Werth hard. I don’t think the Phillies will be able to find the money in their budget to retain him, but their lineup is really lefty-heavy, so don’t be surprised if a couple pieces are moved (Ibanez? Blanton?) to free up the money for Werth.

I mention the Nationals and Braves, since like I mentioned before the Nationals are looking to make a splash in free agency, and the Braves could really use a replacement for Chipper Jones in their outfield.

This one, I honestly have no feel on where he will end up, so take this with a grain of salt.

Predicted deal: Red Sox, 5 years, $100 million

Other Hot Stove Notes:

 -Expect the three Yankee FA’s to re-up with the team, even if they go to free agency. I’m thinking a one-year deal again for Pettitte, a two-year deal for Mo Rivera, and either a 3 or 4-year deal for Jeter. Money might be an issue in the Jeter negotiations, but he wouldn’t get nearly the kind of money on the open market that the Yankees would give him.

- The biggest names in this market left are Rafael Soriano and Jorge De La Rosa. Considering that closers generally get overpaid in free agency, and there’s no starting pitcher on anywhere near the same level of Cliff Lee available, both guys could be budget-breakers for the teams that land them.

- As free agency proceeds, expect the trade market to produce a couple interesting moves. Zack Greinke, like I stated already (Zack Greinke On The Move? But Where Exactly?), should be on the move to the team that comes up with the biggest offer – Twins or Rangers being the lead candidates. Adrian Gonzalez could be on the move, although it wouldn’t surprise me if the Padres see if they can build on last season to make another run at a weak NL West. Prince Fielder also could be on the way out.

- Bud Selig should be focusing more on expanding instant replay in baseball, instead of making the long baseball season longer by adding more playoff games. I have no problem with the concept of two wild card teams who have to play a do-or-die game to make the Divisional round, but only if he also makes sure that we don’t have anymore November baseball.

ALCS Game 1 Breakdown: CC Struggles, Yanks’ Rally and Bullpen Stops Rangers, Michael Kay Needs to Stop Talking

-If you told me that through the first 4 games of these playoffs, that CC Sabathia would have an ERA somewhere around 6 (7 ER in 10 innings) and his biggest play would be a forceout at home, I would tell you that the Yankees didn’t make it past the Twins.

That they’re 4-0 after winning Game 1 in the ALCS is a testament to their overall depth and a never-say-die attitude that befits a defending champion.

Look, it’s really simple enough: The Yankees cannot win a second straight title if Sabathia continues to pitch like it’s spring 2009. The next round will feature a team that have a huge advantage in starting pitching to the Yankees, and Sabathia will need to be able to match zeroes on the scoreboard, not give up 5 in four innings like he did last night.

-Small side note on the play at the plate in the 1st: What a great call by the home umpire Gerry Davis, who had great eyes for that play when few others saw that Nelson Cruz was out well before he touched the plate. There’s been plenty of bashing the umpires in this offseason, so when a great call is made on a play that could’ve easily been another argument for instant replay, you have to give the umps some love.

-After the play at the plate, it took 6 innings for the Yankees to get a clutch hit, but after Robinson Cano’s solo homer in the 7^th got them on the scoreboard, the floodgates opened in the 8^th.

Brett Gardner gets spiked on a hustling infield single, then Derek Jeter smokes a double down the line past a drawn-in Michael Young (Why he wasn’t playing back to prevent a double when up by four is still a mystery to me) to score Gardner. Darren Oliver relieves CJ Wilson – who deserved much better than what he ended up with (7 IP, 3 ER, no decision) – and walks the bases loaded on consecutive 3-2 counts.

Alex Rodriguez got his first big hit of the postseason, lacing a two-run single to left that absolutely handcuffed Young when he tried to glove it instead of knocking it down, followed by Robinson Cano lining the game-tying single to center. One broken-bat single by Marcus Thames later, and the five-run rally was complete.

-The story of the first round was opportunities squandered by the losing team, which got a new chapter for these playoffs last night. Give the Yankees a lot of credit, as they played with poise and took advantage against the Rangers’ bullpen in the 8^th.

But how different is the result if Young makes either play against Jeter or A-Rod in the 8^th? How different is it if Oliver doesn’t walk the only two batters he faces, on 3-2 counts no less? Or if the Rangers’ offense didn’t go to sleep against the Yanks’ bullpen (5 innings of shutout ball, and only 3 baserunners allowed)?

The biggest what-if, however, belongs to Ian Kinsler getting picked off first as the tying run in the bottom of the 8^th, when Kerry Wood was struggling with his command. What could have been a game-tying rally by the bottom of the Rangers’ lineup ended up being an eventful and unusual 1-2-3 inning of sorts.

-Michael Kay is officially an idiot with a stunning lack of foresight. Why, oh why would you call out potentially the best pitcher in these playoffs for cheating?

For those who don’t know, Kay – on his radio show for the ESPN network in New York – decided it was a good idea to jump on the idea that Cliff Lee is combining resin from his cap with his sweat to get a better grip on his pitches.

He can “think that’s illegal” all he wants. He should absolutely know better than to broadcast such an idea during a playoff series, against a pitcher the Yankees are absolutely nuts about signing this offseason. First off, you never intentionally give the other team bulletin-board material, especially a team that played the Yankees to a draw this season. Second, why piss off a guy who your team wants to sign in a couple months, when no prior accusations have been made against him?

Dumb, dumb, dumb.

-One thing this postseason is showing is that the Yankees, for all their payroll, have an extraordinary issue in terms of starting pitching depth.

I say extraordinary because no team that spends $200 million should be worried about their starting pitching.

With AJ Burnett plunking two batters in a simulated game – which he described as a confidence builder! – Sabathia struggling and Phil Hughes going way above his innings limit this year, Cliff Lee can expect a Sabathia-sized offer from the Yankees this offseason.

Add to that the fact that Andy Pettitte is going to retire eventually, and maybe as soon as this offseason, they’re going to need at least two starting pitchers from somewhere next year. I’d expect to see another open competition for the 5^th starter spot in spring training – which might include Burnett – and some kind of move for a No. 4-type starter, since Javier Vazquez is on his way out.

Expect an offer to either the Royals for Zack Greinke, or a good-sized offer to Matt Garza (if the Rays don’t offer him arbitration and let him go to free agency) if Pettitte retires this year.