With the NBA season about to begin, here’s your primer on everything roundball, and what to expect in the coming season!
-Don’t expect the Miami Heat to run away with league’s all-time best regular season record: Remember, this is a team that was built to win championships, not to go 82-0. They already had to absorb a major thumb injury to Mike Miller, as well as a Dwyane Wade hamstring pull. Who knows what other injuries are going to keep them from their potential. Remember, the ’96 Bulls had an incredible run of health in the year they set the record for most regular season wins – only Dennis Rodman missed significant time that year.
-Do expect the climb to the top to be harder for the Heat than most are predicting: The Lakers are still the team to beat this year, and their biggest advantage (pun not intended) is exactly the Heat’s weakness – size, and good size to boot. Chris Bosh can’t cover Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum (when healthy), and Lamar Odom would also be an iffy matchup as well. Throw in Ron Artest potentially giving LeBron James fits, and you still have to give the advantage to the Lakers in that matchup.
This, of course, assumes that Miami can get through the Celtics and the Magic, both who will also have a size advantage against the Heat. Admittedly, I see the Magic being less of an issue than the Celtics, unless Dwight Howard finally learned something from Hakeem Olajuwon during the offseason and has a much-improved post game.
-Expect the Thunder to push the Lakers to Game 7 – this time in the Western Conference Finals: Kevin Durant is ready to take that next step, and with this young team’s evolution into a tough-minded defensive outfit, they are the toughest out for the defending champs.
-Don’t expect a surprise team to make it further than the second round: This is clearly a top-heavy league, with the top eight teams – Lakers, Celtics, Heat, Magic, Thunder, Mavericks, Spurs and Bulls – being significantly better than the rest of the league. Maybe the Trail Blazers or the Rockets can shake the injury bug enough to surprise one of the top teams out West in the first round – but they are clearly inferior to healthy Lakers and Thunder squads.
Along that same thought, the Bucks and Hawks out East are not ready yet to take down any of the top 3 teams – nor should they pose too much of a threat to the Bulls, either.
-Expect the Knicks to make the playoffs – with or without Carmelo: Even if the Knicks don’t find a way to trade for Carmelo Anthony, the inside-out game between Amare Stoudemire and Danilo Gallinari should be enough to push them into the 7th or 8th seed in the East, and with a stark improvement at PG with the Raymond Felton signing, you have the makings of a couple playoff games in the Garden this year.
Speaking of which…
-Expect Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul to get traded: Anthony is not going to re-sign with the Nuggets, and while I’m not sure if he ends up a Knick or a Net, he is definitely going to be traded. I’m actually surprised that the Nuggets didn’t make the move already, since you have to expect that the packages they could demand in a trade would have to be lessened as the season goes along, and they can’t pull what Toronto did with Chris Bosh and let him leave for basically nothing.
While Anthony trade talk has certainly quieted the early offseason noise from New Orleans, I can very well see the Hornets having another mediocre year, and if they’re clearly out of playoff contention, you can expect Paul to start demanding a trade again. If the Nets strike out on Anthony, they become a co-favorite along with Portland to acquire Paul.
-Don’t expect LeBron James to win the MVP Award again: This year’s MVP will go to Kevin Durant, especially as the Heat take the second half of the season to get healthy for the playoffs. A dark-horse candidate for the MVP – Dwight Howard, but he has to show marked improvement on the offensive end.
-Expect Blake Griffin to win the Rookie of the Year Award: Simply put, the man is a beast, and if he can stay healthy after sitting out all last year with a broken kneecap, he will put up double-doubles with ease. The Clippers have enough talent to make the playoffs, and it starts with Griffin, who will edge out John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins for ROY honors.
-Don’t expect the Cavaliers to win the draft lottery: Simply put, the team with the worst record has won the lottery exactly four times since the lottery was instituted in 1985. So, in combination with losing LeBron this year, there’s a good chance that the Cavs won’t be drafting a new King this year.
-Expect the best record to come from the East again – and don’t be surprised if it’s not the Heat: Orlando and Boston could easily put together as many wins as the Heat, if not more, and I don’t see the Heat playing nearly as hard for home-court advantage as their competitors. There’s also a good chance that the best record will be the only team to crack 60 wins, like last year.
-Expect a repeat winner for Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard will have this award in the bag every year he’s healthy. As for the other major award winners – Coach of the Year will be Tom Thibodeau, Executive of the Year will be Pat Riley, Most Improved Player will be Eric Gordon, and Sixth Man of the Year will be Jamal Crawford.-Don’t expect many new division winners: My picks for the division winners: Boston (Atlantic), Chicago (Central), Miami (Southeast), Oklahoma City (Northeast), LA Lakers (Pacific) and Dallas (Southwest).
-Don’t expect a rematch in the NBA Finals – but don’t be surprised either: Personally, I can’t stand the Lakers or the Heat, but I can’t predict anything else unless someone proves otherwise: Lakers-Heat, Lakers in 7.
-Expect a repeat of the 2000 lockout: This would be a horrendous move by both the owners and the players, especially with the NFL and MLB staring at contentious labor negotiations as well. However, I can’t expect the players to agree to anything the owners come up with that requires a steep drop in revenues that go to players – right now the owners want the players’ cut of revenues to decrease by $750-$800 million from the $2.1 billion they’ll take in this year.
I also don’t see the players’ union successfully breaking down the owners, many of whom probably would be better off financially during a lockout than if they had to run normal operations. If a deal gets done that keeps the 2011-12 season intact, I’d be stunned.
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