Well, it took until the 162nd game, but we have an NL Playoff field! With the NLDS series opening up on Wednesday and Thursday, let’s break down the matchups, and hand out some (pretend) hardware.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds – The surprise team in the playoffs vs. the surprise No. 1 team in baseball, the Phillies come into this series with easily the best starting pitching of any contender. Start off a series with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, who have all pitched at the top of their games in the second half, and you have the makings of a quick series.
The Reds, meanwhile, have faded down the stretch, although they certainly did enough to hold off a surprisingly mediocre St. Louis Cardinals team to take the NL Central. Joey Votto should absolutely win the MVP – more on that later – but the starting pitching for the Reds is middle-of-the-pack, and even playing all 5 games in hitter-friendly parks, it’s really easy to give the nod to the best three-headed monster in this postseason.
Prediction: Phillies in 3
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants – For once, unless you’re a Mets or Phillies fan, the Braves became the feel-good story of the year with their late run to the playoffs for soon-to-be-retired manager Bobby Cox. Sprinkle in a strong rookie year from Jason Heyward, and of course some exceptional starting pitching, and you have the receipe for a wild card team.
Too bad they’re running into the second-best pitching team in these playoffs, not to mention without a fully healthy lineup. With Chipper Jones and Martin Prado out of the lineup, expect the Giants’ young trio of lights-out starters – Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez – to keep the scoring down, and the Giants should prevail to move on for a shot at the NL Pennant.
Prediction: Giants in 4
NLCS: Phillies vs. Giants – With both teams sporting excellent pitching (the Giants had the majors’ best team ERA, while the Phillies had the 6th), don’t expect a whole lot of runs scored in any of the games played between these two teams.
That being said, this is also a matchup of the 7th best offense in baseball vs. the 17th. Once you factor that in, the Phillies might have their most trouble in the postseason with the Giants, but expect them to pull away with just enough offense to carry them to a third straight World Series appearance.
Prediction: Phillies in 6
World Series: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies – As I stated in my AL Playoff preview, the Rays’ offense has a nasty tendency to disappear for whole games – no-hit or one-hit 5 times this year. I really don’t have much else to say about this one, since the Rays don’t have a starter to line up behind David Price who’s even in the same conversation as Cole Hamels, let alone Oswalt or Halladay.
In terms of offensive consistency, overall starting pitching, and the fact that the Phillies will have an easier path to the Series, expect a repeat from 2008 and a second title for the Phillies.
Prediction: Phillies in 6
My NL Award Winners
NL MVP: For most of the second half, the MVP talk centered around three potential Triple Crown winners – Joey Votto of the Reds, Albert Pujols of the Cardinals, and Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies.
Since their stats are all in the same ballpark (no pun intended), let’s break down each candidate and play process of elimination.
Albert Pujols’ team faded down the stretch and lost their division going away to Votto’s Reds. If he clearly had the best numbers of all the players, he could stay in the conversation, but his team losing out to his direct competitors knocks him out.
Carlos Gonzalez, even though his team couldn’t complete their seemingly normal late-season run to the postseason this year, put up some monster numbers… at home in Coors Field. A 1.162 OPS would win you an MVP most years, but a .775 OPS to match on the road, especially with your home field being a mile high, and another one bites the dust.
That leaves Votto, who led his team to the playoffs, finished 2nd in batting average, 3rd in HR’s and RBI’s, and 1st in OBP, slugging and OPS – oh and he was a slightly better hitter on the road, and you have your MVP.
Prediction: Joey Votto is your MVP, but don’t be surprised if Roy Halladay gets a few first-place votes too.
NL Cy Young: Note to CC Sabathia: Nowadays, if you want to win a Cy Young, here’s the numbers you have to put up, along with 21 wins: 219 K’s, 2.44 ERA, 9 CG, 1.04 WHIP and a 10-1 K/BB ratio.
I’m of course talking about Roy Halladay, who is going to win this one going away. Adam Wainwright wasn’t nearly as dominant overall and Ubaldo Jimenez couldn’t keep up his first-half pace as he faded in the second half.
No-brainer here.
Prediction: Roy Halladay, in what should be a unanimous selection.
NL Rookie of the Year: From the first at-bat of his season onward, this award was Jason Heyward’s to lose. And he certainly didn’t, playing 142 games, batting .277 with an OBP of .393 – outstanding for a 20-year-old – and playing solid defense in right field.
There’s definitely room in the argument for Buster Posey here, who hit for a higher average (.305), hit as many home runs as Heyward in fewer at-bats (both hit 18), and played a more demanding position, catching the best staff in terms of ERA day-in and day-out. Don’t forget about Jaime Garcia either, who slowed down in the second half but still ended up with a 2.70 ERA to go along with a 13-8 record and a .243 BAA.
At the end of the day, though, the extra days in the lineup and the higher OBP are going to carry Heyward to his first – and most likely not his last – end of the year award.
Prediction: Jason Heyward, in what figures to be a pretty close vote.
I’ll be back with postseason series wraps throughout the playoffs. Stay tuned!
~ David
No comments:
Post a Comment