With the first BCS Poll results out this afternoon, here’s my thoughts on the rest of this season in college football.
-The weekend’s results ultimately hurt Boise State’s title chances the most. With Nevada’s loss and subsequent tumble out of the AP Top 25, combined with Oregon State’s 3rd loss to Washington in double overtime, the glaring weakness in overall strength of schedule just got worse for the Broncos. Whereas if Oregon State held on and ran the table in the Pac-10, and Nevada was unbeaten entering the Nov. 26th matchup, Boise State would have potentially beaten three Top-25 teams, one on neutral turf and another on the road, including two potential BCS-AQ conference champions.
Now, there’s a distinct possibility that they won’t play another ranked team this season, and only one team on their schedule for the year will end up ranked. That, plus the fact that you have Oklahoma, who only has No. 14 Oklahoma State on their schedule before the probable Big 12 Title matchup with Nebraska, and Oregon, who should run the table in the Pac-10, already ahead of them, and expect Boise State to make another BCS game – just not the one they were hoping for.
-TCU also got knocked down a peg, with Air Force losing a week before their matchup with the Horned Frogs, taking another ranked team off their schedule. Oregon State’s loss also hurts TCU, since they beat the Beavers to start the season.
I’d actually give them a better chance of making the title game than Boise State, since they still have No. 9 Utah on their schedule, and anyone who knows college football knows that impressive wins are more important at the end of the season and not the beginning.
-Ohio State’s loss to Wisconsin will probably kill off their title chances, as they took a steep drop down in the rankings from No. 1 to No. 10. It’s not impossible for them to get close, at least, if they win out and a combination of things happen:
1. Auburn, LSU and Alabama all beat each other, leaving both Auburn and LSU with a loss and Alabama with two. LSU and Alabama would be out of the title picture completely, and Auburn would probably fall behind Ohio State in the polls.
2. The winner of the TCU-Utah game already has a loss entering that game – TCU being the best-case scenario for Ohio State, as they would probably jump ahead of TCU after they lost, then would leapfrog Utah after they lost to TCU.
3. Boise State’s strength of schedule keeps them locked at No. 3, or they lose to Nevada. It really wouldn’t surprise me if Boise State doesn’t move up past No. 3 in the BCS, and if Ohio State ran the table, a one-loss Buckeye team probably would get the nod over the Broncos.
4. Either Oklahoma or Oregon take a bad loss in the upcoming weeks that puts them behind Ohio State in the polls.
5. Michigan State loses. To anyone, really. Iowa would be the best bet to pick them off if you had to ask me.
Granted, this is a lot to ask to happen, but this is college football. Weirder things have happened.
-Dark horse candidates for the BCS Title game: Missouri and Alabama. Mizzou has a big opportunity in the next two weeks, with No. 1 Oklahoma next weekend and No. 16 Nebraska the following weekend. In fact, with 3 of their next 4 games against Top-25 opponents, the Tigers could run the table and put themselves right in the title mix. As long as their defense is not a mirage (No. 2 in the country in scoring defense), they can pull it off.
Alabama, meanwhile, has Auburn and LSU still on their schedule, plus get a chance to pad their resume by winning the SEC Championship against either South Carolina or Florida. Even with the loss, their resume to play in the title game would almost be unmatched if they run the table from here on out, as they would be 7-1 against ranked teams, and have 4 wins against teams ranked in the Top 10.
-I’d include Michigan State in the conversation as a dark horse, but without playing Ohio State, their schedule is going to suffer in comparison to other teams. In fact, if Missouri upsets Oklahoma this week, I’d fully expect them to leapfrog the Spartans in the standings. I just don’t see their schedule moving them past TCU and Boise State, especially with only No. 15 Iowa remaining as a ranked opponent.
-Utah would also be a candidate to make a surprise run at the BCS Title game… except I can’t see them beating TCU. I don’t want to dismiss their chances completely, but I fully expect TCU to go unbeaten, and probably miss out on the title game.
-As it stands right now, here are my BCS Bowl projections (subject to change in the top 2 who would play in the title game):
BCS Title Game – Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl – Michigan State vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl – Auburn vs. TCU
Sugar Bowl – West Virginia vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl – Ohio State vs. Virginia Tech
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