Thursday, October 14, 2010

ALCS and NLCS Previews and Predictions: Expect a Repeat of Last Year

ALCS: New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers

The Yankees caught a huge break when the Rangers couldn’t finish off the Tampa Bay Rays in Arlington in the ALDS, therefore having to burn Cliff Lee in a Game 5 instead of having him start Game 1 of this series. That leaves the pitching matchups almost completely in the Yankees’ favor.

I say almost because apparently AJ Burnett has to start a game in these playoffs. Maybe it’s because of the huge salary, or Joe Girardi could be forgetting that this is 2010 and not 2009. The upside to that is that CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte have a chance to make him largely irrelevant to the results of the series by pitching well.

Personally, I think it’s a bad move to run out Burnett. Game 4’s tend to be momentum-changing games in 7 game series, and to put a pitcher who you couldn’t trust out of the bullpen against the Twins is probably not going to figure it out against a much more powerful lineup in the Rangers. In my opinion, if you have to start him at all this series, you start him in Game 3 against Cliff Lee, the only game in the first 6 that you would really favor Texas.

An even better, and bolder move, would be to keep him strapped on the bench until next year, and run out Ivan Nova for a start. He had some bright spots in the second half, and probably deserves the shot over Burnett anyway.

For the Rangers, their Game 1 starter, CJ Wilson, had a tremendous start in Game 2 against the Rays in Tampa, and Colby Lewis gave them five solid innings in Game 3 which the bullpen threw away. Tommy Hunter struggled in his start, only lasting four innings, but only allowing 2 ER. Pitching-wise, overall you have to give the Yankees the nod, if only because the series could be decided without Cliff Lee getting to pitch a second game.

Both teams are really a wash in terms of offense, as both lineups hit well in the ALDS, with only Brett Gardner and Josh Hamilton having subpar series. The Rangers will have an advantage running on Jorge Posada, so it will be key for the Yanks to limit walks and keep innings as short as possible.

Prediction: Game 5 of the ALDS will be the reason the Yankees are in the World Series again. Yankees in 6.

NLCS: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants

Unlike the Rangers, the Giants took care of business in Game 4, which left their ace, Tim Lincecum, fresh to start Saturday in Game 1 against Roy Halladay. Expect another low-scoring series, as both staffs are excellent and pitched incredibly well in the NLDS (except for Roy Oswalt, who was saved a loss by the Reds’ Game 2 implosion).

I apologize for the lack of depth in terms of analysis on this series, but I just feel like the Phillies are too good offensively not to score enough runs against the Giants pitching, no matter how good Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgartner were in the opening round. In fact, Game 4 might be the only time that the Giants have a distinct advantage in the pitching matchup, provided that Halladay doesn’t come back on short rest from Game 1.

For the Giants to stand any chance at all in this series, Buster Posey is going to have to have a huge series, and Pablo Sandoval will have to remember what last year felt like and start hitting like it.

Still, I can’t see Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels struggling to get through the Giants’ lineup. Looks like the Phillies will have their shot at starting a dynasty.

Prediction: Phillies in 5

Playoff Notes:

-The weirdest stat of the postseason has to be that the home team in the first round of the playoffs were a collective 4-11 in the 15 games, with the Rangers-Rays series being the first in the wild-card era to have all the games won by the road team. Add in the fact that the Phillies won their two home games, and everyone else was 2-11. So much for home-field advantage.

-In the Year of the Pitcher, it’s fitting that the playoffs have featured starting pitching so heavily. Between Roy Halladay’s no-hitter, Cole Hamels’ complete-game shutout, and Cliff Lee’s two gems, you had the Giants’ staff showing off all their promise, and the Yankees’ Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes pitching very solidly. Runs are going to continue to be at a premium.

-Cliff Lee, barring a devastating injury, has made himself a ton of money over the past year. He went from the extension that the Phillies eventually gave Roy Halladay (3 years, $60 million with an option for a $20 million fourth) to probably getting somewhere around Sabathia money (7 years, $161 million). Besides the Yankees and Rangers, I would fully expect the Red Sox, Mets and Cubs to be in on the bidding. Dark horses who could make a big splash by signing Lee include the Nationals, Reds and Twins.

-Jayson Werth is arguably the one player who will get massively overpaid. Considering his age (he turns 32 next year), his high strikeout rate (147 K’s this year, which is not out of line from the past two years as well), and his significant home/road splits (50 point drop in BA, almost 200 points in OPS, 18 HR in Philly vs. 9 on the road), you’d figure him to be deserving of Jason Bay-type money (4 years, $66 million, vesting option for a 5th) and not the Matt Holiday money he’ll be seeking (7 years, $120 million). Granted, he is better defensively than both and plays right field, but that’s not enough of a difference for a player who made his career playing in the bandbox known as Citizens Bank Park.

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