Preview and Predictions: UFC 119

What’s up MMA heads?!

Tonight we have UFC 119 airing Live from Indianapolis and while this is not the most star-studded card, there are plenty of interesting fights. So without further ado, here are my completely un-scientific picks:

Frank Mir vs. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic

Going solely on star power, this fight should be more important than it really is. On one side we have a two time former champion (Mir) vs the Lion of Pride Cro Cop. Reality is that in Mir, we have a former champion who can no longer beat the best of the division (yes, his two thrashings at the hands of Carwin and Lesnar allow me to say that) and is fighting off the dreaded “gatekeeper” label as well as his own demons at the same time (Lesnar obsession much?). Cro Cop isn’t much better, looking a step slow in his last few fights and openly discussing his lack of motivation to fight anymore.  Personally, I believe the fight itself will be more entertaining than people think as Cro Cop has honed a very good take-down defense over the years and Mir is very still a talented fighter against anyone else not bigger than him.

My Pick: Has to be Mir, still good enough to beat anyone else in the division. Sub in the 2nd with an outside shot at a decision 

Wildcard: “Right leg, hospital; Left leg, cemetery” is always a consideration.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader

This is the fight that intrigues me the most. Classic example of the wily veteran vs. the up and comer. Rogerio is the seemingly fresher of the Nogeuira twins and while winning a controversial decision in his last outing, has impressed so far in the UFC with very nice jiu-jitsu and hands. Bader on the other hand is another wrestling stand-out that has found a home in MMA and seems to get better with every fight.  I would pick Bader outright but Rogerio has demonstrated he is a very tough out and I don’t think Bader’s stand up has yet to evolve past having one specialty punch yet.

My Pick: Ehh…………..going with Bader since wrestling overall has been on a roll vs. jiu-jitsu guys lately. Or maybe just because I want the rise of new talent to continue. This one’s a decision.

Wildcard: Who knows, I am completely prepared to be wrong on this one.

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Serra

“Lights out” vs. “The Terror”..a fight that should be fought on nicknames alone.  This is a “you’ll never be a contender again but people enjoy watching you fight” match. For me, I believe the most interesting part of the fight will be on the ground. Lytle, the hometown hero tonight, has won most of fights via submission and Serra displays very good flexibility and jiu-jitsu. How they get to the ground however is anyone’s guess.

My Pick: Lytle via decision. Between the two there are 40 wins with only 5 of them coming via (T)KO. I don’t see that changing here.

Wildcard: Serra’s punching power ::laughs:: see above

Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham

Our second up and comer vs. veteran fight. Sherk has put up a nice record over his career with his 4 losses coming to current or potential hall of famers however he is getting up there in age (37). Dunham on the other hand is looking very impressive and is another good talent in the lightweight division. Dunham will have the length advantage in the fight (5’10” to 5’6”) and both will push the pace. 

My Pick: Sherk with the upset. Sherk has tons of experience and is still extremely explosive. I don’t think he is done yet.

Wildcard: Dunham relies on his length to pepper Sherk and stuff any take-downs.

Jeremy Stephens vs. Melvin Guillard

Did you see the stare down at the weight-ins?? This fight promises to be entertaining with two explosive free swingers going at it. Guillard has had a resurgence since hooking up with Greg Jackson’s camp and has won 5 of his last 6. Stephens on the other hand came off a very impressive victory over Sam Stout in which he out-punched Stout for three rounds. 

My Pick: Guillard via knockout. Jackson’s camp is a gold mine and Guillard will come with the winning game plan and skillset. Also tabbing this one for Fight of the Night or at the very least, KO of the Night.

Wildcard: In a slugfest, there is always a chance for either fighter at any time to land the winning punch.

Undercard Interest:

Matt Mitrione: He is a head case from the Ultimate Fighter but the former NFL player has looked pretty good since the show. It will be interesting to see how he continues to apply his athleticism to MMA.

There you have it, my picks for tonight’s UFC. Sound off below on your thoughts and check back in to see how I did!

~ John